Turkish Daily News

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in mid-1993 was due to Armenianaggression and occupation of Azerbaijani territories of Karabakh andseven other regions (total of about 15 percent of Azerbaijan, with over800,000 Azerbaijanis and Kurds displaced or killed). Incidentally, thesebinding demands on Armenia about withdrawing and ceasing occupationwere made not just by Turkey, but by the U.N. Security Council, the U.N.General Assembly, OSCE, PACE and OIC, just to name a few, all of which Armenia ignored.

Missed opportunities

What is troublesome is that not only was this worthy initiative of PMErdoğan monopolized by the Armenian lobby, but it also quite overtlyattempts to hurt Georgia, by reducing trade turnover of all theregional states with Georgia and redirect pipelines and railroads tobe routed through Armenia, instead of Georgia. When PM Erdoğan wasdrafting his proposal, he probably could not have imagined that hisidea would be ripped from context and used with such ulterior motivesby one special interest group to the detriment of Georgia, Azerbaijanas well as Turkey.

If Armenia was serious about good neighborly relations, it would havestopped its occupation of Azerbaijan, removed all its troops, andstopped the blockade of Naxcivan region (which has been under Armenianblockade since 1989). This would have definitely improved thesituation in the region, and would have placed Armenia on the rightside of economic development – and relations with its neighbors.

Secondly, what has Armenia done to repay Turkey for its persistentgoodwill, to demand yet another expensive gesture? For example, Turkeywas among the first states to have recognized Armenia back in 1991,has allowed regular, charter and humanitarian air flights to/fromArmenia, welcomed over 60,000 illegal immigrants from Armenia, has cutin half its border and other security personnel on the border, has atleast $35 million in official trade turnover with Armenia(unofficially could be as high as $200 million), charges the sametourist visa fee ($12 for one month) as it does on everyone else, isamong the first to congratulate the new Armenian president on assuminghis new office — the list is long and can go on.

In return, Armenia attempts to put pressure on Turkey throughthird parties, sometimes resorting to blackmail, such as speculatingthat the recognition of 1915 events as “genocide” would be “rewarded”with a EU membership, or, as the latest article in The Economistclaims, if the land border opens then the U.S. Congress might not adoptits non-binding “genocide” resolution. All these speculations are ofcourse untrue.

Border politics and economic impacts

Armenia’s remaining population is around 2 million and itspurchasing power is increasing very slowly, meaning it simply cannotafford to import Turkish goods and prefers less expensive Iranian andChinese goods. Also, as Armenian economy found ways to cope with tradesanctions, the effect of lifting the Turkish embargo would have almostno positive economic change, although will make the Turkish marketmore accessible for illegal immigrants and suitcase traders fromArmenia.

Turkey stands to gain much more through increasing trade with the truly booming economies of Azerbaijan and Georgia, than with Armenia, as every dollar invested into Armenia without strings attached currently fuels further groundless claims and occupation, whilst investment to Azerbaijan and Georgia, along with other Turkic countries, creates economic growth, prosperity and more economic opportunities with positive return on investment.

Possible repercussions

Hence, there are simply no real political, economic, trade andmonetary benefits for opening of the land border. However, opening ofthe land border would mean a great symbolic victory by Armenia overboth Turkey and Azerbaijan. For starters, it would irreparably damagerelations between two brotherly states. It would also greatlydamage prospects of Karabakh war settlement. It would show thatpushing Turkey around and holding it hostage to never ending demandsworks, and that Turkey can be forced to rescind its own words andpromises. All this would empower Armenia, but weaken Georgia,Azerbaijan and Turkey.

What would be the right course of action for Turkey in this situation?1) To be firm and continue demand Armenia to comply with internationallaw and UN resolutions; 2) To continue and accelerate regionalprojects with Georgia and Turkic nations; 3) To promote greaterresearch and awareness of Turkish history, particularly in the periodof WWI, such as through the Azerbaijan Turkey Historical ResearchFoundation (ATAF); 4) President Gül should accept PresidentSarkissian’s invitation to watch the football match, but travel toYerevan from Baku, so that the symbolism is not lost on the host, andwhile in Armenia, to simply enjoy the game, while firmly reiteratingpoint No. 1 as a precondition for CSCP to be viable. The sooner Armeniacomplies with the international law, the quicker confidence and trusttowards it will be built. The region wants and deserves peace, butachieving it requires firmness and honoring commitments.

Source: turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=113639